Player Analysis - Cole Perfetti (WPG)
Is Cole Perfetti really as bad for Winnipeg as the second half of his 2023-24 season said? How can Winnipeg get him going, and where do things go this summer?
Season Summary
Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg Jets (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Cole Perfetti’s third pro season in Winnipeg was a rollercoaster ride to say the least. The 22 year-old Whitby native started the season off hot, recording 8 goals and 18 points across 22 games in October in November. His production slowed but remained consistent across December and January, adding another 6 goals and 12 points in 25 games.
However, that’s where things took a turn for the worst for the young forward, going pointless across 11 games in February and only recording 2 points across 8 games in March. This led to him getting demoted all the way to the 4th line, and eventually, he was healthy scratched on multiple occasions in March. He sat there with broken confidence and worked hard to find his mojo back, but to no avail.
Entering April riding a 6-game losing skid that saw them lose control of the Central Division lead, Winnipeg put him back in the lineup for Tyler Toffoli, who was dealing with illness, for a clash with the Los Angeles Kings. Perfetti did not waste his chance, recording 2 goals and an assist to help the Jets snap their winless skid. This win started them on a 8-game winning streak to end the regular season.
“I’m not going to lie, it wasn’t easy. It has been tough the last little bit,” said Perfetti after his 3-point night against the Kings. “I just tried to come to work every day with a positive mindset and be a good teammate.”
Perfetti remained in the lineup for a few more games, but was ultimately scratched against not even two weeks later ahead of a game against the Dallas Stars. He did play in the Jets’ regular season finale against the Vancouver Canucks, recording a pair of goals. His confidence was back, but not everyone saw it that way.
Perfetti ended up riding the Jets bench until Game 5 against the Colorado Avalanche, a must-win for the Jets to keep their season alive. Winnipeg has been eaten alive in the three games prior against the Avalanche, struggling to generate any sort of offence. However, it was too little too late, as the Jets got eliminated in the First Round for the second-straight season.
Perfetti now enters the summer as an RFA, and considering how the season ended for both him and the Jets, it’s no surprise that fans are wondering what is going to happen. Was Perfetti really hurting the Jets, or was he a victim of bad personnel choices?
Defensive Impact: Perfetti leads Jets Top 6
Many fans point fingers at Perfetti for not generating offence during his cold stretch, and being a defensive liability which led to him being demoted to the 4th line. However, Perfetti was one of Winnipeg’s best defensive forwards all season long at 5 on 5 despite his cold stretch. Here are the Top 10 Winnipeg Forwards (over 50 GP) ranked by Defense Rating via HockeyStatCards.
Perfetti slides in at 4th on this list, and is the highest-ranking defensive forward who played large minutes within the Jets Top 6. He’s almost 2 full points above Nikolaj Ehlers, the next highest-ranking Top 6 contributor. According to MoneyPuck, Perfetti only started 4.5% of his shifts in the Defensive Zone, meaning his commitment to playing a full 200-foot game was a key reason for his positive impact for most of the season. He also had a positive turnover impact, recording 18 takeaways to just 12 giveaways across the entire season.
His Corsi statistics were great as well, recording a CF% of 53.7% at 5 on 5, and 58.5% across all situations (via Hockey Reference). He turned a positive everywhere on the ice, recording an on-ice expected goals for percentage of 53.6% according to MoneyPuck. This ranks second in the Top 6 behind Ehlers (55.1%) and way ahead of other Top 6 contributors like Gabriel Vilardi (48.1%), Mark Scheifele (46.0%), and Kyle Connor (45.4%).
JFresh Hockey’s model also had Perfetti clocking in with a positive defensive WAR impact. His offensive impacts were also blue, meaning his offensive production did not just randomly fall. The one thing that does not add up is if Perfetti is having such a positive impact on the Jets defensively, and multiple models show his offensive production and playdriving not slipping, why were his offensive numbers so terrible across the second half of the season?
Offensive Impact: Snakebitten Shooter
First, let us take a look at the overall offensive impact according to HockeyStatCards. Once again, this will only encompass Winnipeg forwards who are at or above 50 GP.
Once again, Perfetti slots in at the 4th spot behind Scheifele, Ehlers, and Connor. However, there is a pretty wide margin between him and the others this time. Those three were definitely producing more across the entire season, but it seems a little odd that a player with the playdriving ability of Perfetti would be ranked so low in comparison.
It is important to note that Perfetti is a smart shooter. Here’s a graph via MoneyPuck that shows the shots on net of Winnipeg’s forward group.
It’s tricky to see, but Perfetti ranks in the “High Quality Chances” section, right next to Nino Niederreiter. He undoubtedly was driving play and had many great chances down the stretch, but was unable to convert on many of them. I watched a lot of Jets games down the stretch this season, and it was easy to see his outstanding offensive awareness. He should have been able to produce a lot more than his season statistics and the stats say. Take it with a grain of salt, considering I am relatively new to advanced stats and like the eye test a little more, but it wouldn’t shock me if Perfetti came into next season and recorded a 60-point or even 30-goal season considering how his season went this year.
Personnel Decisions: Perfetti slots in at Line 2
The biggest question mark for Perfetti next season will be where he slots inside the Jets lineup. There were a few lines that worked this season, and I will explore all of them. All of these stats were pulled from Moneypuck.
Combination 1 → Iafallo - Namestnikov - Perfetti
2023-24 Statistics (Amongst 6 Jets lines with over 150 mins played)
Minutes → 152.90 minutes (26 games)
xGoals% → 60.7% (1st)
xGoals For Per 60 → 2.67 goals (3rd)
xGoals Against Per 60 → 1.73 goals (1st)
xGoals Differential Per 60 → +0.94 goals per 60
This was a line that I really did like watching. Namestnikov is a strong and tenacious forechecker, and their defensive game as a unit really did shine through across the games this line played together. However, this was commonly a 4th line combination and not only does that not enable this unit to get a lot of ice time, but it also feels like a waste of Perfetti compared to other places you could slot him in the lineup.
Combination 2 → Ehlers - Perfetti - Namestnikov
2023-24 Statistics (Amongst 6 Jets lines with over 150 mins played)
Minutes → 194.70 minutes (34 games)
xGoals% → 52.2% (4th)
xGoals For Per 60 → 2.19 goals (5th)
xGoals Against Per 60 → 2.00 goals (2nd)
xGoals Differential Per 60 → +0.19 goals per 60
Funny how both of Perfetti’s lines are ranked at 1 and 2 on xGA/60, huh? This line was used earlier in the year before Winnipeg acquired Sean Monahan for that 2nd line. This line was full of speed and was fun to watch, but they broke even most of the time instead of actually being a line that could dominate like a second line should. If Winnipeg is unable to re-sign Sean Monahan and they fail to bring in a 2nd line center, this is a line I can see them using if Ehlers sticks around. Brad Lambert likely needs another year in the AHL, so bringing Namestnikov up would be the easiest fix for Winnipeg in the short-term.
There is one more line that did not have as much minutes together, but was a bright spot for a longer test run inside the Jets Top 6.
Combination 3 → Connor - Monahan - Perfetti
2023-24 Statistics
Minutes → 34.5 minutes (4 games)
xGoals% → 60.0%
xGoals For Per 60 → 3.13 goals
xGoals Against Per 60 → 2.09 goals
xGoals Differential Per 60 → +1.04 goals per 60
This line looked amazing in the very small sample size that they had together. In Perfetti’s triumphant return against the Kings, this is the line combination they rolled with, and it looked amazing! Perfetti and Connor with speed up the wing, and Monahan with the big body and defensive presence made this line look great in the few games they had together.
Not only could this be what the Jets need to get Perfetti going, but it would solve issues on the first line as well. Ehlers looked much better up the wing with Scheifele and Vilardi than Connor did, and new Jets Head Coach Scott Arniel frequently played Ehlers on that top line. That would keep the Jets Top 6 together in comfortable roles, with the lines projecting as:
Ehlers - Scheifele - Vilardi
Connor - Monahan - Perfetti
This is a pretty formidable Top 6 group on paper, and with time and some chemistry, it could develop into one of the best in the game if everyone stays healthy. There are big question marks. Does Winnipeg re-sign Monahan? Does Ehlers sign long-term or get traded? We’ll know the answers to those soon enough. No matter what the Jets choose, it’s an absolute no-brainer to run Perfetti within the Top 6 regardless.
Prediction: Bridge Deal for Perfetti with Winnipeg
I’m projecting that Perfetti and the Jets will opt to sign a bridge deal this summer. The length will more than likely be 2 years, and the AAV somewhere in the 3.5-4.5M AAV range.
This gives Perfetti a chance to prove he can be a leading contributor in the Jets forward core, and gives Winnipeg some flexibility to pay him if he reaches that plateau, with massive money coming off the books for Winnipeg next season.
Perfetti is a talented young forward in this league, and I think he’ll have a breakout season in 2024-25 if Winnipeg chooses to play him in the right spot in their lineup.
Great article but there’s no way he gets paid more than 3 million in a bridge deal
This article was well researched. Impressive. One key aspect that is missing is the impact Rick Bowness had on Cole. Despite being a defensively responsible, offensive producer both on the ice and in analytic stats, the head coach did not display confidence in Perfetti.
Long before the on-ice production started to fade for #91, the coach had already started reducing his ice time. It would be interesting to chart Cole's deployment over his point production.
The lack of confidence that the head coach put in him turned out to be somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It started right at the beginning of the season. The team had said publicly that they were going to give Cole every opportunity to play 2nd line center. All he got was 3 games. Granted, the faceoff percentage wasn't great (something the team struggled with all year), but other than that, he was playing well.
Cole has shown that he is lethal when he has a little extra time and space, but Bones refused to play him in any 4 on 4 situations and never in 3 on 3 OT.
Third-period ice time was incredibly low for any game with a tight score after 2 periods. Especially if the Jets were up by a single goal. Cole often wouldn't see any ice during the last 6 to 10 minutes of those games.
Perfetti and Ehlers seemed to be the only players that were held accountable for their mistakes. I can think of one exception when Bones benched Iafallo. Of course, he moved #9 to the 4th line with Cole and then didn't play that line for the entire 3rd period. In that case, Cole got to ride the pine for someone else's mistake.
I'm not saying Cole never made mistakes. It was just hard to watch veteran players repeatedly commit obvious mistakes without any repercussion, while Cole was on a ridiculously short leash.
Cole's drop in ice time was a leading indicator of his point production, not the other way around.
One other significant point is that Cole's point drought started when the whole team went on a losing streak and was having a hard time scoring. Cole didn't emerge from that slide as well as some of the other forwards. Of course, he is accountable for that. The difficulty I have is that I feel like he wasn't set up for success. An NHL coach's job is to win games. If Bones felt using (or not using) Cole the way he did was the best way to win, so be it. I just don't agree.
Then the Jets picked up Monahan and Toffoli. Cue the string of healthy scratches.
Despite playing extremely well in any opportunity he was presented after having been a healthy scratch, Cole found himself eating popcorn in the press box again.
Cole had 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 regular season games... back to the press box for the playoffs. The coach waited until game 5 when the team was down 3 games to 1 against Colorado to bring Cole in. During the first two periods, he played on the second line with Connor and Monahan. That line was producing a lot of opportunities. Cole was playing so well that Twitter was full of people commenting on how he was the best Jets forward through 40 minutes. Then in the third, Bones switched the lines back to the combinations that had struggled all series long. Cole once again spent most of the 3rd on the bench, and the Jets were ousted in 5 short games.
Playing Cole probably wouldn't have fixed enough of the Jets' problems in the first round of the playoffs, but if you look at the impact other young players are having on the teams that are still fighting for the cup, well... maybe.