Is Cole Perfetti really as bad for Winnipeg as the second half of his 2023-24 season said? How can Winnipeg get him going, and where do things go this summer?
I'd say it's hard to project exactly what his salary will be unless you're in the Jets organization. I saw some models project him as high as 4.5 and some as low as 2. Given those assessments, I think a 2 x 3.5M contract would fit him just right. I do hope you're right and that he gets less so that we can add more players. especially on defense.
Look at Gabriel Valardi's bridge deal. Very similar pre RFA contract numbers, with what is arguably higher upside expectation than what Vilardi had at the same point. Also Cole is a top 10 pick and central to the Jets future plans. It'll be north of $3.5 million
This article was well researched. Impressive. One key aspect that is missing is the impact Rick Bowness had on Cole. Despite being a defensively responsible, offensive producer both on the ice and in analytic stats, the head coach did not display confidence in Perfetti.
Long before the on-ice production started to fade for #91, the coach had already started reducing his ice time. It would be interesting to chart Cole's deployment over his point production.
The lack of confidence that the head coach put in him turned out to be somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It started right at the beginning of the season. The team had said publicly that they were going to give Cole every opportunity to play 2nd line center. All he got was 3 games. Granted, the faceoff percentage wasn't great (something the team struggled with all year), but other than that, he was playing well.
Cole has shown that he is lethal when he has a little extra time and space, but Bones refused to play him in any 4 on 4 situations and never in 3 on 3 OT.
Third-period ice time was incredibly low for any game with a tight score after 2 periods. Especially if the Jets were up by a single goal. Cole often wouldn't see any ice during the last 6 to 10 minutes of those games.
Perfetti and Ehlers seemed to be the only players that were held accountable for their mistakes. I can think of one exception when Bones benched Iafallo. Of course, he moved #9 to the 4th line with Cole and then didn't play that line for the entire 3rd period. In that case, Cole got to ride the pine for someone else's mistake.
I'm not saying Cole never made mistakes. It was just hard to watch veteran players repeatedly commit obvious mistakes without any repercussion, while Cole was on a ridiculously short leash.
Cole's drop in ice time was a leading indicator of his point production, not the other way around.
One other significant point is that Cole's point drought started when the whole team went on a losing streak and was having a hard time scoring. Cole didn't emerge from that slide as well as some of the other forwards. Of course, he is accountable for that. The difficulty I have is that I feel like he wasn't set up for success. An NHL coach's job is to win games. If Bones felt using (or not using) Cole the way he did was the best way to win, so be it. I just don't agree.
Then the Jets picked up Monahan and Toffoli. Cue the string of healthy scratches.
Despite playing extremely well in any opportunity he was presented after having been a healthy scratch, Cole found himself eating popcorn in the press box again.
Cole had 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 regular season games... back to the press box for the playoffs. The coach waited until game 5 when the team was down 3 games to 1 against Colorado to bring Cole in. During the first two periods, he played on the second line with Connor and Monahan. That line was producing a lot of opportunities. Cole was playing so well that Twitter was full of people commenting on how he was the best Jets forward through 40 minutes. Then in the third, Bones switched the lines back to the combinations that had struggled all series long. Cole once again spent most of the 3rd on the bench, and the Jets were ousted in 5 short games.
Playing Cole probably wouldn't have fixed enough of the Jets' problems in the first round of the playoffs, but if you look at the impact other young players are having on the teams that are still fighting for the cup, well... maybe.
I wholeheartedly agree. Coaching decisions affected Perfetti's confidence and that is definitely one of the reasons why he faltered.
I love Bowness, and I thought he was a great coach for the Jets as a whole in terms of helping the team's culture and that sort of stuff, but some of his personnel decision were baffling. Benching and not allowing Perfetti to get his mojo back? Playing noticeably slower players during 3 on 3? Refusing to move Connor down when him and Scheifele obviously weren't working together?
I know I'm not going to like every decision he makes but eventually the eye test and analytics are going to tell you something. Game 5's line adjustments during the second intermission just reinforced something fans already came to expect.
Also, I appreciate the kind words! I don't have access to many hockey analytics sites so I try to find as much as I can in the way of free advanced stats and pair that with examining video observations!
Great article but there’s no way he gets paid more than 3 million in a bridge deal
I'd say it's hard to project exactly what his salary will be unless you're in the Jets organization. I saw some models project him as high as 4.5 and some as low as 2. Given those assessments, I think a 2 x 3.5M contract would fit him just right. I do hope you're right and that he gets less so that we can add more players. especially on defense.
Also thank you for the kind words!
Look at Gabriel Valardi's bridge deal. Very similar pre RFA contract numbers, with what is arguably higher upside expectation than what Vilardi had at the same point. Also Cole is a top 10 pick and central to the Jets future plans. It'll be north of $3.5 million
That is a very good point!
This article was well researched. Impressive. One key aspect that is missing is the impact Rick Bowness had on Cole. Despite being a defensively responsible, offensive producer both on the ice and in analytic stats, the head coach did not display confidence in Perfetti.
Long before the on-ice production started to fade for #91, the coach had already started reducing his ice time. It would be interesting to chart Cole's deployment over his point production.
The lack of confidence that the head coach put in him turned out to be somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It started right at the beginning of the season. The team had said publicly that they were going to give Cole every opportunity to play 2nd line center. All he got was 3 games. Granted, the faceoff percentage wasn't great (something the team struggled with all year), but other than that, he was playing well.
Cole has shown that he is lethal when he has a little extra time and space, but Bones refused to play him in any 4 on 4 situations and never in 3 on 3 OT.
Third-period ice time was incredibly low for any game with a tight score after 2 periods. Especially if the Jets were up by a single goal. Cole often wouldn't see any ice during the last 6 to 10 minutes of those games.
Perfetti and Ehlers seemed to be the only players that were held accountable for their mistakes. I can think of one exception when Bones benched Iafallo. Of course, he moved #9 to the 4th line with Cole and then didn't play that line for the entire 3rd period. In that case, Cole got to ride the pine for someone else's mistake.
I'm not saying Cole never made mistakes. It was just hard to watch veteran players repeatedly commit obvious mistakes without any repercussion, while Cole was on a ridiculously short leash.
Cole's drop in ice time was a leading indicator of his point production, not the other way around.
One other significant point is that Cole's point drought started when the whole team went on a losing streak and was having a hard time scoring. Cole didn't emerge from that slide as well as some of the other forwards. Of course, he is accountable for that. The difficulty I have is that I feel like he wasn't set up for success. An NHL coach's job is to win games. If Bones felt using (or not using) Cole the way he did was the best way to win, so be it. I just don't agree.
Then the Jets picked up Monahan and Toffoli. Cue the string of healthy scratches.
Despite playing extremely well in any opportunity he was presented after having been a healthy scratch, Cole found himself eating popcorn in the press box again.
Cole had 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 regular season games... back to the press box for the playoffs. The coach waited until game 5 when the team was down 3 games to 1 against Colorado to bring Cole in. During the first two periods, he played on the second line with Connor and Monahan. That line was producing a lot of opportunities. Cole was playing so well that Twitter was full of people commenting on how he was the best Jets forward through 40 minutes. Then in the third, Bones switched the lines back to the combinations that had struggled all series long. Cole once again spent most of the 3rd on the bench, and the Jets were ousted in 5 short games.
Playing Cole probably wouldn't have fixed enough of the Jets' problems in the first round of the playoffs, but if you look at the impact other young players are having on the teams that are still fighting for the cup, well... maybe.
I wholeheartedly agree. Coaching decisions affected Perfetti's confidence and that is definitely one of the reasons why he faltered.
I love Bowness, and I thought he was a great coach for the Jets as a whole in terms of helping the team's culture and that sort of stuff, but some of his personnel decision were baffling. Benching and not allowing Perfetti to get his mojo back? Playing noticeably slower players during 3 on 3? Refusing to move Connor down when him and Scheifele obviously weren't working together?
I know I'm not going to like every decision he makes but eventually the eye test and analytics are going to tell you something. Game 5's line adjustments during the second intermission just reinforced something fans already came to expect.
Also, I appreciate the kind words! I don't have access to many hockey analytics sites so I try to find as much as I can in the way of free advanced stats and pair that with examining video observations!